👋 Good morning! And happy Fed day. The press conference is at 2:30 p.m. ET, and we will be carrying it live on the site. Instead of a senioritis situation as Chair Jerome Powell heads toward the end of his term, there's quite a lot on the Fed's plate.
On the agenda this morning:
🇺🇸 The US economy may be strong — but it's delicate
🛢️ One supply shock after another
🗓️ SEC considers ending quarterly earnings
✂️ 'A month ago, no one would have believed this.'
🛒 People (obviously) still like browsing the aisles
📆 What we're watching Wednesday: Both oil and stocks rose on Tuesday as the stock market looked, at least somewhat, past the Iran conflict that's showing no signs of cooling. (Energy is still outperforming!)
The vibes and substance from the Fed meeting will be the main question mark for Wednesday, even if the rate decision is clear (no action expected). The Fed's dot plot will also be on our radar, though predicting anything right now may seem somewhat laughable.
We'll also be eying quarterly results from Micron Technology (MU) and others on the corporate calendar.
🛢️ Making sense of 'the largest supply disruption' in history
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) ·Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images
Recent labor market data gave the Federal Reserve some flexibility to turn its attention to a persistent inflation problem. But now we have an oil shock to add to the picture.
While the disruption to global energy flows is a shock to the inflation side of the ledger, it could easily knock the other half of the Fed’s mandate off balance.
US central bankers, who will announce their next interest rate decision later today, face a policy dilemma: rising pricing pressures on one side, and slowing economic growth on the other.
As DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe wrote in a note this week, the recent spike in oil prices “will certainly” upend the low hire-low fire dynamic “if it persists long enough to cause recession concerns among public and private businesses."
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen sharply since June, dipping below 1x, meaning that there are more people looking for work than there are open positions.
"While this ratio does not yet signal a labor market/consumer-led recession, it has come down quickly and bears watching in the months ahead given rising oil prices and recession worries," Rabe noted.
A gas pump is inserted inside an Audi vehicle at a Mobil gas station in Beverly Boulevard in West Hollywood, California, U.S., March 10, 2022. (REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo) ·Reuters / Reuters
How should investors think through one-off events like supply shocks when they come in rapid succession?
What was once seemingly an infrequent occurrence has become increasingly common in the economic conversation.
The COVID pandemic rocked the economy in ways consumers and corporations are still grappling with. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump’s upending of trade policy, and now, another war in the Persian Gulf.
Just as inflation pressures were easing and policymakers were preparing to move toward rate cuts, a surge in energy prices driven by disruptions in the Middle East is complicating the global outlook.
The Federal Reserve, which will announce its next interest rate decision later today, faces a policy dilemma: rising inflation risks on one side, and slowing economic growth on the other.
To bolster a flagging economy, the Fed textbook calls for cuts. But the nature of an oil shock, and the waves of prior shocks intermingling, make it hard to pin down a solution. The Fed also has to guard against another inflation surge, just as recent pricing pressure readings suggest that the battle is headed in the wrong direction.
Two people with thoughts about quarterly reports. (Donald Bowers/Getty Images for FORTUNE) ·Donald Bowers via Getty Images
The SEC is preparing a proposal to do away with the requirement for companies to report earnings every quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported, instead giving them the option to post results twice a year.
President Trump has expressed approval of the idea, exploring it during his first term.
Proponents of less frequent reporting say it would remove a logistical burden to companies, freeing them from the time-consuming work of sharing results every three months.
But investors also rely on the reports to get (mostly) unfiltered insights into business operations, and to provide a verified record of company financials that can cut through hype, corporate public relations, and media spin.
There are other ways to tackle these problems. Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon have advocated for keeping quarterly reports but doing away with guidance.
"It's just not the moment for plant-based meat right now."
— Beyond CEO and president Ethan Brown, whose company just changed its name from "Beyond Meat" as it looks for success amid a tough crowd.
The company has had a rough go of it lately and just delayed its annual report, sending the stock 7% into the red.
✂️ 'A month ago, no one would have believed this.'
The Fed meeting will give us Powell commentary and a new dot plot. Critically, this will update the market's expectations for the economy — and Fed progress.
On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed's prediction tool showed the possibility for a hike in the next three months was higher than a cut — for the first time in ages.
As friend of the Brief (and Carson Group's chief market strategist) Ryan Detrick mused on X, "A month ago, no one would have believed this."
At the same time, the CME's FedWatch tool, which uses futures data for its probabilities, only shows a 1% chance.
🛒 One more thing
The Home Depot store, hardware, power tools and plumbing aisle, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images) ·UCG/Universal Images Group via G
Something caught our eye, tucked into a recent analyst note from Bank of America about the retail trade show "Prosper" in Las Vegas.
So far, retail isn't "seeing an LLM impact on direct traffic to Amazon."
While AI adoption has completely changed how sellers and marketplaces list items — and perhaps how customers research — the tools are not being used much for checkout.
People may be fine avoiding actual aisles and the physical hassle of brick and mortar, but an endless aisle on your iPad from your couch? That's some people's idea of a good time.
Still, marketplaces are very much preparing for the ChatGPT-ification of the checkout process, optimizing their listings if it eventually comes.
🗓️ Earnings and economic calendar
Wednesday
Economic data: FOMC rate decision; PPI final demand, month-on-month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.5% previously); PPI ex food and energy, month-on-month, February (+0.3% expected, +0.8% previously); PPI final demand, year-on-year, February (+2.9% previously); PPI ex food and energy, year-on-year, February (+3.6% previously); Factory orders, January (-0.7% previously); Durable goods orders, January final reading (-1.4% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ended March 13, (+3.2% previously)
Earnings calendar: Micron Technology (MU), Prudential (PRU), Jabil Inc. (JBL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), General Mills (GIS), H World Group Limited (HTHT), Five Below (FIVE), SailPoint (SAIL), EquipmentShare.com Inc. (EQPT), Macy's (M), Weibo Corporation (WB)
Thursday
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended March 14 (213,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended March 7 (1.85 million previously); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, March (16.3 previously); New home sales, month-on-month, January (-2.7% expected, -1.7% previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, January final reading (+0.2% expected); Building permits, month-on-month, January final reading (-5.4% previously)
