Citrini Research — the financial research publication that gained attention in February for its doomsday AI report — sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz to report on-the-ground conditions. Its report suggests the strait may not be as closed off as markets are pricing.

According to a post on the Citrini Research Substack page and videos posted to X, the analyst, dubbed "Analyst #3," reached the strait in March and found that the satellite- and ship-tracking data the market has been relying on has been undercounting the "dark fleet" of vessels operating in the region.

The report was quoted as saying that vessels spoofed their location data and changed their ownership designations to disguise their movements through Iran's tolling system and ensure their own safety.

The upshot, according to Citrini's findings, is that the market had missed a large swath of Iranian-directed shipping traffic through the strait.

Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices

In going to the strait, "we figured we'd leave with an impression that was basically 'The strait was closed or open,'" Citrini wrote in the public section of its client report. "We also were quite aware that the trip might be a flop and we would learn nothing at all."

The report goes on to say, "There was no shortage of alpha on the Strait, including concrete information on the new rules, being written as we speak, on how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is deciding who can, and can't, pass."

Citrini Research said its on-the-ground analyst is "now safe and sound back in the free world."

Oil prices popped at the open of futures trading on Sunday before moderating overnight. By 11:15 a.m. ET Monday, international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 0.4% to $109 per barrel, while futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) traded 0.4% higher to hover around $112 per barrel.

The latest data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that over the weekend, 21 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the highest volume of traffic through the critical waterway since the war began. While most of those ships were Iranian, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee, vessels from China, Japan, and Iraq, among other countries that have agreed to Iran's tolling regime, have also passed through.