JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon says a resilient US economy is still threatened by the Iran war, a looming credit cycle, ongoing trade negotiations, and other uncertainties.

“While the economy may be less fragile than in the past, this alone does not mean there is no ‘tipping point’ — it just may mean it could take more straws on the camel’s back to get there,” he said in a 48-page shareholder letter published on Monday.

Dimon said consumers and businesses are still healthy. But he said the Iran war means "we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.”

"The skunk at the party — and it could happen in 2026 — would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down," Dimon said, noting that the combination of rapidly increasing oil prices and inflation is viewed as among the main causes of deep recessions in 1974 and 1982.

Ongoing trade negotiations “exacerbate the tense geopolitical issues,” and historically high asset prices “create additional risk if anything goes wrong,” he added.

Dimon, who turned 70 last month, is the longest-serving CEO of a major US bank. He's credited as one of Wall Street's most prudent risk managers, for steering his bank through the worst of the financial crisis while simultaneously scooping up other hobbled players. For years, he has used his annual shareholder letter to sound off on a wide range of topics beyond banking.

In recent weeks, the Middle East conflict has dominated US markets, with energy prices spiking as Iran chokes off oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz.

Already, Dimon has delivered one of the most outspoken viewpoints from Wall Street. Last week, he said in a Fox interview that it's essential the US doesn’t exit the war in Iran until it's "successfully completed.”

“Time will tell whether the current war in Iran achieves our short-term and long-term objectives in the region, and at what cost,” Dimon wrote in the letter. “We should not turn a blind eye to the role the current regime in Iran has played in fostering terrorism and killing thousands of people, including Americans and many of its own citizens, over many years” or the country’s nuclear threat.

Domestically, losses in private credit and other forms of leveraged lending will be higher than expected due to weakening credit standards, Dimon warned. He said actual losses are "already a little higher than they should be, relative to the environment."