👋 Good morning! The stock market was treated to more good news on Thursday, with further hopes of deescalation with Iran and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices, however, rose on the news before pulling back.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, to clinch new record highs as the tech rally broadened further from the chip trade. The Dow (^DJI) rose 0.2%.
On the agenda this morning:
🏦 The Fed is unifying again
🎢 Checking back in with absolutely wild Allbirds AI situation
🏦 3 takeaways from Big Bank's Q1 results
🇺🇸 A huge US advantage in the AI revolution
🍿 Netflix's Q1 mixed results come with a big goodbye
🍪 The agentic AI shift may be a catalyst
📆 What we're watching Friday: We're on the lookout for Iran resolution and some more financial sector earnings.
Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran speaks during a meeting of the Economic Club of Miami on March 26, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images) ·Joe Raedle via Getty Images
One of the big predictions for 2026 was a fracturing of the impressive displays of consensus that have characterized the Powell Fed.
The era's breakdown was set to come as the labor market risk seemed poised to rear its head, providing risk to both sides of the stable-prices-and-employment dual mandate.
But with the Iran war, a chorus of FedSpeak from the by-the-book members has been joined by even the most dovish members, like recent Trump appointee Stephen Miran.
Miran conceded this week that the inflation picture had become "a little less favorable" and equivocated about the number of cuts he'd prefer.
Perhaps not a full-throated worry about inflation risk, but in the context of a currently dovish (but traditionally hawkish) incoming Fed chair, a White House that appears to have let up on its push for rate cuts, and that aforementioned chorus, the Fed may be going into its next meeting aligned once again.
🎢 Checking back in with the absolutely wild Allbirds AI situation
Sign on facade at shoe company Allbirds, Walnut Creek, California, August 25, 2025. (Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images) ·Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images
There was so much buzz this week about the Allbirds (BIRD) pivot from shoes to AI that a brief meme recap is in order.
Social media was atwitter with "Wolf of Wall Street" screengrabs casting the most cynical view on the company's move, the classic joke of a frustrated investor putting Benjamin Graham's seminal "The Intelligent Investor "into the trash, and even Liz Ann Sonders posting a "Schitt's Creek" "I've seen this movie before" gif while evoking the dot-com era: "in the ‘90s it was internet commerce; now it’s GPU infrastructure."
Day two of this wild storyline featured the pullback that many had been waiting for, as the stock lost 36% on Thursday. But there will be no "I told you so" just yet — Allbirds, which will be called "NewBird AI," is still up nearly 400% since its announcement.
People are paying attention, you can be sure.
Myseum, a social media firm we must admit was not on our radar, turned into "Myseum.ai" on Wednesday after the bell. And to some extent, their move worked too. We're writing about them here and, perhaps against your will, you now know about this company.
But what can we say? Myseum.ai stock is up 150%. Until this stops working, we expect it to continue.
The heavy hitters. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) ·SAUL LOEB via Getty Images
With a slew of Big Bank earnings in the books, the overall report card from the sector is in. They're roaring, as our bank guy David Hollerith put it.
But the banks also delivered a report card for the economy, and the message was one of stability and a continuation of the resiliency we've seen bolster the stock market for years now. Profits and spirits are up.
Of course, concerns are too — especially from the statesman-like mouths of the big bank CEOs who are quick with a "to be sure." And there's a lot of fodder in that uncertainty basket, obviously.
But David's three takeaways make for three bullish points: Higher gas isn't hurting consumer spending, Wall Street is poised for a record year ahead, and the private credit situation doesn't appear to be a problem.
"These results broadly match the historical experience of the [computer] revolution, when the US pulled ahead of Europe."
— BNP Paribas economists, on how the US is best poised to reap AI gains
If you say "AI" to someone, a lot comes to mind. Its transformative power, both good and bad. Its potential. Its enormous price tag. Its role in the investing world. Perhaps even its scary "Skynet" potential.
But what you may not be thinking about is its role in an international context.
While the technology may cause more domestic inequality, it's also poised to give the US a massive boost, pushing it even further ahead of other developed economies that also stand to gain.
As our quote makes clear, there's historic precedent for this. And American inventions are often used most effectively by the country that did the inventing.
🍿 Netflix's Q1 mixed results come with a big goodbye
Co-founder and director of Netflix Reed Hastings delivers a speech as he inaugurates the new offices of Netflix France, in Paris on January 17, 2020. (CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images) ·CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT via Getty Images
Netflix's Q1 results were overshadowed by a key departure: Co-founder and board member Reed Hastings said he would be hanging up his remote control when his term expires.
It's the end of an era that began with red envelopes in the mail.
The results were the first since the company's loss to Paramount Skydance in the effort to buy Warner Bros., as well as a recent price hike, and came with stronger-than-expected profits.
But a disappointing outlook sent Netflix stock into the red in after-hours trading. The narrative now is split. Some investors were left looking for a growth story to grasp and didn't feel as if they got one. Some see potential after a clean break with the failed acquisition.
Chipmaker stocks may not have shown it, but Thursday brought another bullish signal to the AI trade.
Taiwan Semiconductor CEO C.C. Wei noted "extremely robust" demand, thanks to "the shift from generative AI and the query mode to agentic AI" that requires far more compute.
The comments and bullish multiyear outlook from the chip manufacturer that receives plenty of long-term customer orders may be enough to offset the cost concerns. Something to watch as tech earnings trickle in.
