Argus

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Mar 09, 2026

Market Outlook

Bullish

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Short

Summary

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was recently near 3.95%, down from 4.3% earlier in the year and at its lowest level since October.  The U.S. missile strike in Iran has prompted a risk-off trade, and investors are piling into safe and secure U.S. Treasury bonds.   Adding fuel to the fire, the domestic employment environment has cooled, and the on-again/off-again shutdown status of the U.S. government has upended key economic trends. Other sovereign long-term rates generally have held at higher levels. The UK's benchmark yield is near 4.25%, and the debt of Australia, which we view as a proxy for China growth, is at 4.65%. But not all have climbed to heights on fears of rekindled inflation. For example, sovereign debt yields for Japan and Switzerland remain near their pandemic lows at sub-2.0% levels.  Meanwhile, China has maintained its interest rate near or below 2.0% as well. Elsewhere around the globe, tariff worries in Mexico and political uncertainty in Brazil are keeping sovereign-debt interest rates in those countries in the 8%-12% range. Russian debt yields are close to 14%, up 100 basis points from a year ago as the conflict with Ukraine drags on and inflation runs at a rate

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