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We just covered From Fired Researcher to $13.7 Billion King: How Leopold Aschenbrenner Broke the Hedge Fund World and ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) ranks 11th on this list.

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is a new addition to the 13F portfolio of Situational Awareness LP. The fund declared a new stake in the company in filings for the first quarter of 2026. This stake consists of PUT bets worth close to 375,000 shares. The firm provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The next leg of growth for ASML relies on customers like TSM, Intel, and Samsung transitioning to ultra-advanced High Numerical Aperture (High NA) EUV machines. Short-sellers argue that the staggering physical cost of these systems is hitting an economic brick wall.

A single standard EUV machine from ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) costs roughly $180 million to $200 million. The new High NA EUV systems carry a jaw-dropping price tag of almost $380 million to $400 million per unit. At $400 million a machine, the return on investment for chip foundries becomes highly strained. Major customers are pushing back against this. TSM has explicitly noted that it will rely on existing, heavily optimized Low NA EUV equipment for upcoming advanced nodes through late 2026/2027, rather than buying High NA units at scale. Short-sellers calculate that multi-year projections for ASML overestimate how quickly foundries will absorb this capital expenditure burden, creating risk of a High NA order vacuum.

While we acknowledge the potential of ASML as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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