Argus

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Jun 15, 2026

Sector(s)

Financial Services, Technology, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical

Summary

The newsflow for the coming week includes a possible peace deal in Iran and the Fed, which meets for the first under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. Wall Street is eagerly anticipating his press conference on Wednesday afternoon. It is also a short week, with markets closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all rose 1%. Year to date, all three indices are in positive territory, with the DJIA up 7%, the S&P up 9%, and the Nasdaq up 11%. The earnings calendar is quiet as we are between reporting seasons, and the economic calendar is equally light. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting, new data on Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday.  Turning to economic forecasts, gas prices remain elevated, but did drop 16 cents last week and are now at an average of $4.15 per gallon for regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts 3.3% GDP growth for 2Q, higher than the last reading of 3.0%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for CPI of 4.1% for June, a slight step-down from the 4.2% print for May. Mortgage rates edged up four basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.52%, according to FreddieMac.  As noted, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on Wednesday, and odds are at 3% for a rate cut. After that, there will be meetings on July 29 and September 16. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is up 9%

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